11/10/2018

重温文章



樓市正處息口週期轉向,亦是整個經濟最關鍵的地方。

請作好一齊壞的準備,天氣開始轉冷,大家都會從衣櫃準備厚衣衣,以防萬一,即使最終用不著。

以下是文章連結:

做好準備!

83 則留言:

  1. 樓價和股價跌一半我還ok,畢竟沒有直接對個人現金流造成衝擊;但如果薪金、股息都要減一半,那我就接近還不起房貸,要在天橋底露宿了,慘。

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    1. 希望你份工係鐵飯碗,否則作少少壓力測試是好事。

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  2. Those property developers/investment companies are most hurting!

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    1. 睇下點,個人,發展商,股價,邊個傷D,拭目以待。

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    2. Today 016.HK is ex. div. but so far is the worst among those "local bigs".

      Dividends cannot compensate for significant drop in share price!

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    3. 暫時佢未創近月低位,等下先,$100樓下再考慮。
      等啟德開標。

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  3. 若樓價跌75%,我未淪至負資產,但薪水減2成,應該還不起每月屋貸供款。
    98%cash做了1年美元定期,股價跌頂多影響mpf

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    1. mpf全倉100%北美指數基金,所以希望美股未來1年能夠企穩,但近日派發日幾多,有點擔心。轉去保本或平穩基金又要扣手續金。進退兩難

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    2. 價兄mpf前時有冇轉現金,平穩之類?

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    3. 無太理會,金額不多,存放國際性股票,屬進取型。

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  4. 樓價一下子大跌空間不大
    最理想是逐步下跌

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    1. 對經濟,對金融,對發展商肯定是較好。
      無人知如何。

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  5. I repeat, "Say goodbye to 25000! Say goodbye to HK$100!"

    ^_^

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    1. 我還想今早破一破$100,買多少少。
      快派息新地,為我補充彈藥。

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    2. I think if you are really want to have more 016.HK at 20% of your investment portfolio, you need not be hesitated for paying less HK$1 or HK$2 now.

      In fact, you have been repeatedly purchased 016.HK in this year at higher prices than now ... so that any additional single lot of 016.HK bought by you in these few days will lower your average cost of total lots.

      ^_^

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    3. 現在已接近20%。
      我無急切性要買,我已爆倉。
      愈跌愈買,好快到20%。

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    4. Fund manager Wong Kwok Ying said that 016.HK was better than 823.HK yesterday night.

      ^_^

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    5. 二間公司策略很不同,領展成績有目共睹。
      但我持新地遠超領展。

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    6. It's simply a matter of valuation.

      823.HK is excellent in the past. But at present prices, between the two, 016.HK is better for investment.

      ^_^

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    7. 無人確實知道未來,但牌面新地確實行先。

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    8. Absolutely

      If now I have 823.HK, in no doubt I will switch it to 016.HK.

      ^_^

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    9. 希望你每次switching都成功!

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    10. 只是輕微反彈。
      佢已經跌咗幾十蚊。

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    11. I hope you will have fruitful investment results.

      Though bought in at relatively higher prices, but 016.HK has its history and reputation. You chose it as 20% is a right decision.

      ^_^

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    12. 我同時看緊信置及新地的年報。
      我還會等機會買入更多。
      昨日參觀過海洋公園信置的酒店項目,環境不錯。

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    13. For hotel businesses, I prefer 035.HK.

      035.HK also have carparks businesses ... which I regard as bonus.

      ^_^

      ^_^

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    14. 我到現在仍未摸清酒店股。
      我現在找緊另一隻地產股買,因新地起動中。

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    15. Hotel businesses is hard because of high labour costs and refurnishment costs.

      Most hotel buildings in listed companies accounts are stated as depreciable assets, and so do not reflect their true market values. I just look for their capital appreciation.

      Now 016.HK is apparently the best, the cheapest and safe.

      You should not consider else at this moment. Right?

      ^_^





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    16. 我希望新地跌至谷底讓我耗盡所有資金。

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    17. Value Sir,

      I don't know how much you have prepared.

      In considering we will get 016.HK final div.(@HK$3.45/share) in Thursday or Friday.

      I regard ( HK100 < 016.HK < HK$110 ) are still "good" prices ... so ... whatever within this range, buy it whenever you want!

      Good Luck!

      ^_^

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  6. Two retail cash cows:

    113.HK & 398.HK

    GoGoGo!

    ^_^

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    1. 小心D,零售唔係咁易玩。
      買新地,其實亦是買零售。
      我持周大福,周生生,一向零售業都係現金牛,但是否強牛,有待觀察。

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    2. I prefer 113.HK & 398.HK rather than 1929.HK and 116.HK.

      If you read the financial statements of the formers, you will find that they are real cash cows.

      ^_^

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    3. 我不熟悉它們,有時間研究下。
      不過見佢哋股價,盈利應幾反覆。

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    4. Value investors should focus "mainly" at audited financial statements instead of share price charts.

      Besides, individual balance sheet items should be noted as well.

      ^_^

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  7. 113.HK & 398.HK ... waiting for financial results and news.

    ^_^

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    1. 我還有莎莎,算唔算現金牛?

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    2. Have you studied 178.HK's financial accounts ?

      Do you know its "NAV per share" at 31Mar2018 ?

      Have you calculated its "net cash per share" at 31Mar2018 ?

      Have you calculated its "net net cash per share" at 31Mar2018 ?

      ^_^

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    3. 每行業有其特性,尤其這類願派現金流零售公司,沒有投入固定資產。
      雖然,我持股很少,但我明白與資本密集型的分別。
      你可參考大快活,偉易達這類公司。

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    4. 我重倉金額,地產,怎會不明白NAV的重要。

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    5. Cash cow does not mean NAV !

      Investors have to consider listed co's "bank balances and cash"; "bank loans and borrowings"; "liabilities"; ...

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    6. 我定義為以股價計能產生大量營運現金流,不經修飾派發出去,如10%,即10年可回本,當然要判斷10%是否持續,看你功力。

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    7. At present market price, dividend yield 10%p.a.(excluding special div.) for coming 10 years !?

      Please advise a listed company ?

      Thanks a lot!

      ^_^

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    8. 我不清楚或許零售週期差時,你會找到。

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    9. 安踏最差時至今,股價已是10倍,你估下當年的股息平均10年計有否10%,應該唔止。
      我持有的安踏已升值約10倍。

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    10. 佢平均派6成,每年還有雙位數增長,這應算現金牛。

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    11. Value Sir,

      Are you looking back ?

      I am looking ahead !

      Anyway, thanks for sharing.

      ^_^

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    12. 零售長遠較難後退。
      如果歷史表現好,應較大勝算,當然非絕對,零售相當激烈,淘汰了不少曾風光的。

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    13. Do you know why 178.HK drops a lot this morning ?

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    14. 不清楚,佢來來回回在反彈,佢業務未見重大突破,零售佢叫做還有得做。

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    15. Value Sir,

      For half year,

      178.HK(now HK$3.18) earned HK$0.067/share and declares interim div. HK$0.07/share.

      398.HK(now HK$2.08) earned HK$0.1122/share and declares interim div. HK$0.115/share.

      and also considering their updated NAVs.

      At present market prices, which is better to "invest" ?

      ^_^

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    16. 你最好睇清楚佢,我不熟悉它,但感覺財務數據有D怪。

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    17. Please point out what's strange. Thanks.

      ^_^

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    18. 希望你找到下隻900。
      我不太熟悉這股,不多言了。

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    19. Value Sir,

      Please feel free for straight talks.

      I am interested in what you have found "strange" in its financial data.

      Maybe you have discovered some things I missed.

      P.S. Moreover, 900.HK is not always the best.

      ^_^

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  8. 高銀以每呎15498奪啟德地, 新世界會德豐財團斷欖了, 原本他們以1.45萬奪第一幅跑道地, 以目前市況大幅下調估值來說已經算高價, 但考慮到新世界財團有機會盡掃啟德跑道地皮打造豪宅屋苑, 出高價可以理解
    誰不知高銀殺出來, 將來要大概賣平均30,000元就有正常回報, 實在不知道它們是否真的對啟德樓價這麼有信心

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    1. 我當初估計, 若以目前啟德新盤平均呎價mark-up 20%推算
      假設將來跑道地皮賣到約$28500一呎
      地價最多要$12500左右才達到我心目中合理利潤呢

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    2. I suggest this buyer "silently" (unless after >5% shareholding) use this same amount to buy 016.HK in our stocks market.

      P.S. I have 016.HK

      ^_^

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    3. 高銀搶了有點可惜,不過托住個價亦OK,我一般只參考龍頭本地發展商。
      如果我是這新世界財團,我出價亦只會和上塊差不多。
      不緊要,還有好多塊會推,這塊都推得很密,高銀這幾年很進取,搶完何文田,搶啟德。

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    4. 地價慢慢落對地產商最好,這是軟著陸。

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    5. 現時最理想,恒地聯手減少競爭,有些卒仔擾亂下無問題,希望不太影響個節奏。

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    6. 嘉華,會地還有盤要推。

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  9. To all 900.HK fans:

    I discover in these few days 900.HK only have little publicly traded shares ... or now that it is mainly long run investors are holding it.

    Will 900.HK start its engine ? ... and gogogo ?

    ^_^

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  10. Value Sir,

    Good morning.

    Already bought more 016.HK ?

    ^_^

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    1. I suggest to ignore the share price movement and
      to exercise value investment spirit.

      ^_^

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    2. 我已經買得好勁,好盡。
      市場氣氛未算很差。

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    3. ... provided you must admit that our HS Index is no longer <25000, ... and truely admire Mr. Alex Wong (Fund Manager)'s opinion in 016.HK.

      ^_^

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    4. SHK Cry,

      "016.HK .. gogogo ... goto HK$160 !"

      ^_^

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    5. 咁快!?
      收住4厘息先啦。

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    6. Of course not today!

      ... in coming future.

      You have made a good choice on 016.HK.

      ^_^

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    7. 長實及新地作風較保守。
      信置大盤會證明現時市場又幾好,如箭在弦。

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