8/01/2017

1/8/17 投資日誌 沽中銀香港,買盈富



今日沽出一部份的中銀香港,今日翻看資料,中銀香港是我多年前開始買入,一直有入無出,買入達數次,佔組合比重不輕。

另換入盈富,以金額計,沽出的中銀比盈富較大,整體屬淨沽出,明天再解釋換入盈富的原因,此策略有機會持續一段時間,直至盈富的量足夠。

關於中銀,上年的年報亦有研讀,它是穩健的長線投資對象,業績穩健,近年因沽出南商及集友而盈利急增,以本業計,業績只可算平穩有序,不能算是高增長類,近月股價升勢強勁,我估計年升幅多於25%以上,對我來說,這等同增長股。

*後記 2/8/17 沽清肉潤剩餘的股份,詳情可翻看早前的文章


34 則留言:

  1. 2388是一支好股,價值兄又如何看恆生銀行呢? 榭

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    1. 同樣穩健,我持股量跟中銀香港相若。

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    2. 我喜歡恒生較集中香港市場,香港市場的動力其實很強,控如此大集團有4成盈利來自本港,便可証明。 榭

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    3. 長和剛公報半年業績,價值兄認為如何? 榭

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    4. 其實幾好,基本上有增長都可以,派息有慷慨。
      長和業務較傳統,很飽和,很難有大增長,我希望它能繼續找動力。
      長地效率高,又能懂避風險,租金似乎有復甦,現在仍行順週期。

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    5. 香港對恒生,對匯控,甚至是對渣打,真是塊福地,不過我認為都要小心些,現在息差窄,資產高,是很大的系統風險。

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    6. 對呢,但我仍希望買入一間業務較集中香港的銀行(股票)以作平衡,中銀及恆生是較佳的選擇,但恒生服務口碑似乎稍勝。 榭

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    7. 長實近一年開始涉足地產以外的業務,變成另一間長和,有點令人混淆。 榭

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    8. 這肯定是長線標,基本上學懂投資時已持至今。

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    9. 我同意有點混亂,但事到如今亦無辦法,因為這是大策略轉變。

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  2. Student says :

    I prefer switch to 3988.HK(It holds 66% of of 2388.HK) ?

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    1. Student's correction :

      I prefer switch to 3988.HK because it holds 66% of 2388.HK and there is still room for share price of 3988.HK to go up.

      I don't like 2800.HK..... just an index!...... and members often change out of our control ......

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    2. 我近年買入不少中國銀行,其中原因是看中它的子公司。
      中國銀行的量亦迫近二大內銀。

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    3. 這亦是我多年不買盈富原因。
      你好快會知道我今次的特別原因。

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    4. 價值兄,
      請問可否告知唔買盈富原因,謝謝!

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    5. 明天留意blog!
      留返D墨水,多謝支持。
      下次不況留個名方便交流。

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    6. Student says :

      Value Sir,

      Good morning.

      Following is just for you:

      As an value investment,I still recommend you to consider investing 900.HK instead of buy more 3988.HK and not to say the poor 2800.HK.

      Reasons :
      1. Low PE + high div. yield + reasonable PB

      2. Good Balance Sheet data.

      3. Simple business, unlike banks which involve too many business sectors and penalties.

      4. Excellent past management records and dividends policy.

      5. Low corelation with HS Index.

      6. ...... too many, find them out yourself!

      You can easily find out and study its background and information from aastock.com

      Good Luck.

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    7. 它亦是我買貨名單,但我此刻我首張單是地產板塊,這只是基於個人原因。

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    8. Student says:

      Value Sir,

      My aim of stock investment is only for maximising wealth ...... seems different from you!

      Good luck!

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    9. 這當然。
      故我只能說是我個人原因。

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    10. Student says:

      Value sir,

      Are you leasing a flat/house?

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    11. Student says :

      Value Sir,

      In view of 1113.HK's half year result, next month 016.HK's full year result (y.e.30Jun2017) should be very OK ...... half year already earned HK$7.14 per share (a growth of 40.3%).

      I see 016.HK have many valuable office buildings(IFC,ICC,etc.) and malls(APM,V-City,Yoho Mall,etc.), and many "relatively cheaper" lands reserve, and no high-costly land tender this year.

      I think 016.HK's updated EPS maybe HK$13~HK$15 ...... so updated P/E maybe from 8 to 9.5 only.

      I do hope that 016.HK can generously pay more dividends ...... and also declare "shares buyback scheme". I hope we can be benefited if so.

      I have already bought more 1,000 shares 016.HK yesterday (and now 5,000 shares in total). I hope you can find a "relatively safe" market price within this month and buy more of it before its announcement of full year colourful result.

      You are the best.

      Good luck and good night!


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    12. 我非常認同新地及長實的實力。
      看見長實的重估盈利,對新地更放心,我很期待新地業績,我密切留意Yaho Mall的消息。
      有一點想提,近期新地補地價的二個項目較大,但不屬一線靚地,我會密切留意事態,對我來說有些風險,近年最靚的何文田,啟德,全被人取得。現在唯有見步行步,但我同意投資未必樣樣如意,最好當然是又平又靚。

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    13. Student says :

      Value Sir,

      Good morning.

      Seems a good beginning is started for "big properties developers companies". I've no further idle cash to buy more 016.HK.

      I hope you will be successful in this round. ^_^

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    14. Student says :

      Value Sir,

      If 016.HK hits HK$130:

      Next month 016.HK should declare more dividends ...... say, total year HK$4.20, i.e.9% more than last year), then div. yield becomes 4.20/130 x 100% = 3.23% ...... still reasonable.

      If 016.HK declares a "shares buyback scheme", I have no wonder it can go up to >HK$140 (i.e. div. yield <3%)...... not to say receiving the final div. HK3.10.

      I think 016.HK still has room for investors to buy it at present market price, provided the world market doesn't collapse in this 1-2 months.

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    15. 我估不會大規模回購,有亦是長地式1%股份內。
      關於派息,好肯定有增長。
      當然,我仍然不覺現時估值貴,但我沒有即時性把重倉股再加倉。

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    16. Student says :

      Value Sir,

      No matter how "small size" of a shares buyback scheme, once 016.HK announces it, I think the market will push its share price up immediately by HK$5 ~ HK$10 and sellers fade out at the same time!

      So, it's of crucial important in stimulating its share price!

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    17. 為何你咁想刺激股價?
      它似乎想換農地繼續起,它對規模更有興趣,隨意大回購,佢可能失市場銷售領處地位。

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  3. 轉入2800加強防守力,我覺得係幾好.

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    1. 盈富的強度介乎中游,我需繼續理解它。

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  4. 當組合股票都不能跑贏大市時,盈富基金是唯一選擇,將來我重組股票組合也會以此為首,但不要過分憧景如四十年前那樣的恒指,事實上,盈富十七年年回報只有3%,加股息約6%,不是十分高回報但已好過很多投資組合或基金經理了。

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    1. 恒指有不少實力股份,這十年出現橫行局面,我希望了解更多,局面能否轉變。

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